Dr Ziya Meral discusses arrest of Mayor of Istanbul and protests in Turkey for the ITV News.
New Book Released Soon: Climate Change, Conflict and (In)Security: Hot War
For more information on the book, click here.
This book offers a multidisciplinary exploration of how climate change is impacting conflicts, contention, and competition in the world.
The volume examines how climate change is creating and exacerbating insecurities for millions of people globally, and how states, inter-governmental bodies, and others are attempting to meet challenges today and in the near and medium term. It shows that climate change insecurity is relevant to a battery of security areas, including warfighting, stabilisation, human security, influence, and resilience and capacity building. The volume provides insights into how climate change has and will impact security at different scales and in different localities, including national and ethnic tensions, food and water security, resource competition, mass displacement, and even the recruitment profiles and operations of violent and extremist organisations. With contributions from pioneering researchers and practitioners, the book discusses shifting operational requirements and responsibilities, and the need for clarity around the size and shape of capacity gaps.
In addition to practitioners and policy-makers working in these areas, the book will be of significant interest to researchers and students of defence studies, peace and conflict studies, climate change and environmental security, and International Relations.
France 24: Sun sets on 'unilateral' diplomacy: Blinken trip to Mideast 'reveals limitations of US influence'
“After more than a week of public pressure from the U.S. for “humanitarian pauses” in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday allowed that his government might be open to only “little pauses” in its assault on Hamas. The Israeli leader sought to play down differences with his country's most vocal backer on the world stage at a time of rising scrutiny of the sharply rising civilian toll of fighting. Netanyahu spoke after President Joe Biden made a direct appeal to him nearly a month into the war seeking to rally support behind securing even limited relief for civilians in the spiraling conflict. The back-and-forth spotlighted the challenges facing Biden and his administration as they seek to manage what is emerging as one of the defining foreign policy crises of his presidency. The U.S. thus far remains focused on keeping the fighting from exploding into a wider regional war and pushing for limited steps to alleviate civilian suffering. But it has remained steadfastly behind Israel and Netanyahu's goal of ending Hamas control over Gaza, even as the death toll in Gaza reached 10,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Biden used his first conversation with Netanyahu in eight days to repeat in private his public calls for lulls in the fighting to allow civilians to flee Israel's campaign to crush Hamas and for humanitarian aid to flow to hundreds of thousands in need. For in-depth analysis and a deeper perspective on US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's whirlwind tour of the Middle East, FRANCE 24's Nadia Massih is joined by Dr Ziya Meral, Lecturer in International Studies at SOAS University of London (School of Oriental and African Studies).”
Latest Interviews on Turkey
A selection of latest interviews by Dr Ziya Meral on elections in Turkey, and their outcome for BBC World, Channel 4 News and Al Jazeera English:
Interview: Earthquake in Turkey
Dr Ziya Meral joins Al Jazeera English for a discussion on earthquake in Turkey and its political implications.
Article: Climate Change and Defence
This article by Dr Ziya Meral was originally published by Wavell Room.
When reflecting on climate change from the perspective of those who compose defence policy there are two approaches to take.
The first approach addresses the question of the impact that military operations, equipment and facilities may be having on the production of greenhouse emissions, and what can be done to minimise them and contribute to efforts to contain climate change. There have already been some steps taken in this direction. In March, the Ministry of Defence released an important document setting out “the ambition, the principles and the methods needed for UK Defence to meet the challenge of climate change.” It demonstrates tangible and practical reflections on energy use by Defence, as well as how the estates owned by Defence can be managed in a more environmentally conscious manner.
But the MoD’s Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach also makes it clear that if you are only thinking about the implications of climate change for Defence from this first angle, and see it as a boutique issue driven by the latest social and political trends, then you are risking developing a giant blind-spot that will have substantial implications for defence planning and operations for decades to come.
Climate change is real, and it is happening. Temperatures are rising. Geographies are being altered with expanding deserts and melting ice. Habitats are being affected by more frequent and larger fires, floods, storms. All of these have tremendous social, economic and political effects as well as geopolitical and global implications and pose direct questions for Defence at tactical, operational and strategic levels. Allow me to point to some of these:
Are we going to see new conflicts and security risks triggered by climate change?
There is still not much hard data for arguments that climate change is causing new conflicts. It is plausible to assume, however, that hardening physical conditions will play a part in social unrest, political discontent and localised tensions, all of which may lead to an increased likelihood of violence in ungoverned spaces or weaker states. One can already see this manifested in the tensions between pastoral nomads and resident locals across the middle belt of Nigeria and the wider SAHEL region. As increasingly harsh conditions minimise economic opportunities and damage the habitability of an area, and as poorer states fail to provide the fundamental services to counteract these effects, it is reasonable to assume that we will see more unrest and mass movements of people, with all of the tensions and frictions that emerge from that. We will also see more political pressure, and more assertive postures, taken over fundamental resources like water. These pressures are likely to amplify the stakes over projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Damn over the Nile, for example. Countries holding upstream water resources will seek to translate that increasingly precious and sought-after resource into competitive advantage. At the opposite extreme, the opening of possibilities of new northern trade routes and new resource exploration opportunities will galvanise geopolitical and geo-economic competition further. We already see signs of that in posturing over the Arctic. In other words, climate change will be a catalyst for, if not an accelerator or exaggerator of, the ongoing local and global tensions that are already in place.
What kinds of operational demands would climate change bring?
We have already seen how British forces have been mobilised in supporting responses to floods at home or the devastating impacts of hurricanes abroad. It is fair to assume that, with climate change, such operations both at home and abroad will only increase in frequency and scope. It is highly likely that there will also be operational demands in responding to sudden unrest or mass movements of people. Climate change will affect a wide range of geographies, whether through increased temperatures in desert conditions, or storms and rising sea levels on shorelines. New or exacerbated humanitarian crises are essential scenarios for defence or foreign aid planners to consider, especially in those localities most affected by both. New pandemics, originating as a result of some or all of these factors should also be considered. With those considerations come some inevitable questions of the likelihood of familiar peace and stabilisation missions, and of less familiar missions to counter secondary effects: perhaps to prevent unsustainable and destabilising economic circumstances, and their associated criminal activities, from developing in a way that begins to impinge upon national interests. For example, the UK already gives considerable support to anti-poaching efforts in Africa to protect vulnerable species. The Integrated Review suggests a renewed interest in contributing globally to an increasingly broad range of contexts. Protection of water or other crucial supplies and supply chains around the world are not unthinkable missions lying ahead of us. We cannot overlook how all of these conditions, both in isolation and in combination, will play a part in maintaining and creating new terrorism threats, and with those threats will likely come demands to deploy abroad to respond to terror networks and to work at home to continue to support police forces and the Civil Powers.
What would be the operational impacts of extreme weather conditions?
There is a host of very tactical questions to ponder. How can our soldiers operate under increasingly high levels of heat? Will we need to re-consider a huge range of ‘givens’ or ‘norms’, from their uniforms to shoes and socks, to their accommodation, and to their hydration and the medical risks posed to them in such conditions? How would our tanks or other armoured vehicles, or our helicopters, or jets, or ships, cope with temperatures above certain levels or with prolonged stormy (wet and sand) conditions? What might this mean for given expectations of air support – both in terms of when aircraft or helicopters can fly, and of how overheating on the ground might affect airframes and availability, for example? Will all sorts of things, from runways to engines and airframes need to be adapted to respond to higher temperatures and stronger winds? What are the implications for naval vessels of increased salinity or increasingly rough seas? How would navigation systems that are known to be vulnerable to weather conditions be impaired further? How would our full range of weapon systems be touched, or the storage and carriage of explosives and ammunition be affected by such conditions? What about the millions of old and weather-worn mines, or the arms and explosives stocks scattered across the world in substandard warehouses or locations that our personnel might be asked to deploy to and operate in or near? How would the nitty-gritty of deployments be affected: tour lengths, R&R, operating hours, acclimatisation and training programmes, and so on? Which Defence facilities and estates, at home and abroad, might be vulnerable to changing weather patterns and increased sea levels and the risk of floods? What will such patterns mean for future military bases, their locations, their use and the way they are constructed and maintained? These, and many other, questions highlight what an operational and logistic challenge climate change is likely to pose.
What would be the impact of climate change on R&D and procurement?
As hinted in the cluster of questions above, Defence will have to place a whole new research and development emphasis on materials, technologies, equipment and assets that can protect our personnel and enable them to operate under extreme weather conditions. Alternative energy sources and their use in future platforms are already being explored, but this will require more focus if it is to ensure a competitive and operational edge, generated by more sustainable and effective platforms that do not just perform well in such conditions, but exploit them for advantage. This transformation of emphasis and attitudes will need to have started already if we are to see such platforms in use in a decade when some of the excesses of climate change will already begin to become more demanding. And this mindset will need to move beyond an adaptation of current norms. This really is not about Defence settling for lesser options or accepting reduced performance, or about non-serious concerns over solar-powered armoured vehicles that may run out of juice half-way through the day like a cheap smart phone, or about ‘gradual adaptation’. There are some genuinely exciting developments – like hybrid vehicles, that can perform better, demand less of a supply chain to run, and be much more cost-effective – across all sorts of industries whose extraordinary innovation Defence will need to work alongside in a genuinely exploitative and symbiotic relationship if it is to maintain a developmental edge.
How can we incorporate climate change into defence policy and practice?
Without a doubt, the UK’s role as the chair of the COP26 UN Climate Change conference and the current government’s policy focus on a ‘green industrial revolution’ to ensure the UK eradicates its harmful contributions to climate change by 2050 have already demonstrated a deepening political will to operationalise the climate change challenge in our policy responses. The aforementioned MoD document and the creation of a Climate Change and Sustainability Director tie in well with the new emphasis in government policy. But the challenges remain: how do we deepen and internalise this conversation across all British forces at all levels? How do we ensure that the full weight of climate change assessments is taken into account? How do we change the attitudes of those who still see this simply as a fashionable drive to demonstrate a reduction by Defence in its contributions to greenhouse emissions? How do we ensure that, across Defence, military personnel and civil servants alike are analysing the impacts of climate change on the current and future operating environment and on the demands of procurement (both in terms of platforms and equipment and in terms of attitudes of mind and procedures)? How do we ensure that all of the argument above is debated, taught, absorbed and incorporated at all levels of doctrinal, operational and logistic analysis, planning, exercising, training and deployments? And what must policy do to drive these changes beyond statements of intent?
How we answer these questions now, or how we start approaching potential answers, will have tremendous impact in the decades ahead. How we really deal with this now, beyond making statements of intent, will either prepare the UK for the reasonable expectations of the future and give ‘Global Britain’ a genuinely competitive edge, or, due to the demands of the here and now, risk kicking the can down the road long enough to leave the next generation out in the hot.
Project Launch: Climate Change and (In)Security
I am thrilled to share the news about the launch of a project I have been working on for a while. The Climate Change and (In)Security project is an initiative I co-lead which seeks to explore how the climate change is changing our world and what these will mean social and political conditions and what implications these will create for defence and security. You can learn more about the project, its upcoming book, conference and summer school on its website.
Annual Conference
This month, I am organising the third of my annual conference, Making Sense of a Confusing World. The conference is the annual event of the Global Analysis Programme I lead at the Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research. The day long event seeks to expose UK Army and wider defence and government personnel to discussions on strategic developments that impact defence and security. While usually the conference is held at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst with some 700 personnel in attendance, this year it will virtual. The Chief of the General Staff of the British Army will kick off the day, followed by some 20 world class academics, authors and journalists. See the video.
You can also learn more about activities of the Global Analysis Programme between 2017-2020 here:
New Lecture: Religion, Identity, and Politics in the 21st Century
Dr Ziya Meral gave the prestigious annual Templeton Lecture at the FPRI on Religion, Identity and Politics in the 21st Century. The talk and the following discussions covered a broad range of issues from interaction of religions with politics and violence to how positively and negatively impact our world today.
Interview: Status of Hagia Sophia
An interview I gave to Al Jazeera English on the discussions in Turkey on the status of Hagia Sophia